Tuesday, May 08, 2012

The IMF and Hubbert




The IMF just published a working paper with an eye-catching title The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology. To my knowledge, this is is the first time a peak oil scenario, in the form of a Hubbert Linearization, is explicitly  injected into a econometric model. Based on the work of Hubbert, Deffeyes and Campbell, available supply is modeled by a Hubbert curve plus a marginal supply component sensitive to prices.