Friday, March 02, 2012

World Production Update

The EIA, IEA and JODI have updated their numbers so it is time for a small update on some world production charts.

Figure 1. World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 15 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhtiari, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM,Duncan&Youngquist). 95% of the predictions  sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The 95% forecast variability area in yellow is computed using a bootstrap technique). The magenta area is the 95% confidence interval for the population-based model. JODI is corrected for missing countries and years (see below). IEA data is for all liquids minus processing gains and biofuels.

According to the EIA, we are near record production for crude oil + NGL and all liquids.

Figure 2. World production (EIA). Click to Enlarge.
Strong growth coming mainly from marginal supply, Canadian production almost tripled in about ten years whereas conventional crude oil is nearly flat since 2005:

Figure 3. Supply growth per category (100= Jan 2001).

According to JODI (last data point if for December 2011), Russia, the US and Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Kuwait are producing at decadal record rates.

Figure 2. World production for crude oil only. The black dotted line is the EIA estimate.  The color is function of production shortfall from the last 10 years peak production.
The divergence between EIA and JODI is almost zero for non-OPEC however there is still a difference for OPEC around 1.3 Mbpd (see also there for a discussion).

Figure 3. EIA-JODI divergence