Tuesday, May 08, 2012

The IMF and Hubbert

The IMF just published a working paper with an eye-catching title The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology. To my knowledge, this is is the first time a peak oil scenario, in the form of a Hubbert Linearization, is explicitly  injected into a econometric model. Based on the work of Hubbert, Deffeyes and Campbell, available supply is modeled by a Hubbert curve plus a marginal supply component sensitive to prices. 

Monday, April 23, 2012

France Gasoline at Record Levels in March

Prices for gasoline (gazole and super sans plomb 98) reached record levels in March in nominal terms at 1.68 Euro per liter for the super sans plomb.

Nominal prices for 1 liter of Gazole and super sans plomb (98 octane).

Sunday, April 15, 2012

Energy Production Data from Statistics Canada

Good news for Canadians. Since February 2012, data sets on energy production and consumption, maintained by Statistics Canada, are now available online free of charge:
More free data on the Statistics Canada website
December 8, 2011
OTTAWA — On February 1, 2012, self-serve standard products available on the Statistics Canada website—including CANSIM and census data products—will become free of charge.
Statistics Canada will maintain current pricing practices for products such as print publications, maps, CD-ROMs, and custom products and services.
Licensing restrictions for the use of Statistics Canada data products will be removed. 

Thursday, March 29, 2012

The Non OECD Supply Impact on Oil Prices

The Non-OPEC supply as a share of the World production now at 25% has been steadily decreasing since 2000 and is near its lowest point since the late 70s:

Figure 1. World share of total liquid production . Sources: BP and EIA.

Wednesday, March 07, 2012

Iraq Production Reached 3 Million Barrels per Day in February

According to MEES, Iraq production has passed the 3 Mb/d mark in February thanks to the opening of a single Single Point Mooring as part of the Basra terminal expansion:
Iraq plans to start the actual loading of crude in a week to 10 days, initially boosting oil exports through the country's south, which currently stand at about 1.7 million barrels a day, by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day, said Dhia Jaafar, the director-general of the state-run South Oil Co. The terminal's full capacity will be 900,000 barrels a day. src.
If confirmed, this is the highest production level since 2001 or even 1980.

Friday, March 02, 2012

World Production Update

The EIA, IEA and JODI have updated their numbers so it is time for a small update on some world production charts.

Figure 1. World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 15 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhtiari, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM,Duncan&Youngquist). 95% of the predictions  sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The 95% forecast variability area in yellow is computed using a bootstrap technique). The magenta area is the 95% confidence interval for the population-based model. JODI is corrected for missing countries and years (see below). IEA data is for all liquids minus processing gains and biofuels.