Thursday, June 23, 2011

Update on JODI

On June 18, the JODI database releasead their new numbers therefore I'm updating some of the charts I've published on TOD. The update is for the month of March which is the last month available from the EIA.

Missing or incomplete countries within JODI are the following:

  • All data missing: (Belgium, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Cyprus, El Salvador, Estonia, Finland, Gabon, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Hong-Kong, Iceland, Ireland, Jamaica, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, Panama, Paraguay, Portugal, Singapore. Slovenia, Suriname, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Uruguay)
  • Incompete time series: Argentina (2 months), Barbados (1 year), Bolivia (3 months), Colombia (3 months), Guatemala (11 months), Kazakhstan (15 months), Burma (15 months), Nicaragua (75 months), Tunisia (3 months), Vietnam (6 months), Yeman (17 months), Iraq (data missing before 2007).
Most of those countries are available in the EIA Energy Database so we are able to complete them. In addition about 124 countires are not listed in JODI mostly small producers and countries part of the Former Soviet Union (see as the red area on Figure 1). The JODI estimate for non-OPEC is pretty much in agreement with the EIA since 2004, the divergence is mainly coming from OPEC countries however the difference with JODI is trending down since mid 2010.

Fig 1. Production data from JODI with missing countries component (in red). The three lines are the corresponding EIA estimates.

Fig 2. Observed differences between time series

Fig 3. Production data from the JODI database (crude oil and condensate). The black dotted line is the EIA estimates. The color is a function of the current production as a % of maximum level observed since 2002.
Seen in the context of peak oil forecasts (Figure 4), this divergence could not come at a more critical time when we need to decide if we are facing a declining supply.

Fig. 4. Average of 13 forecasts for crude oil + NGL, the magenta area represents a population based forecast whereas the yellow area represents the average domain for peak oil forecasts (see this post for details). The green line is the JODI estimate from Figure 3 and the back dotted line is the EIA data. The IEA estimate comes the OMR reports and removing processing gains and biofuel production.


  1. American and China trades are meeting now the days even China stand stronger then America. Here is my best service for essay writing to provide help for students.

  2. Chanel baggage come in exclusively the perfect fabric it does not necessarily disparaging offer without difficulty plus chanel replica is definitely robust. A baggage are available either compact plus massive shapes, which has an method to generate them your clutch and also owning wrist strap to hold these folks covering the arm. Visiting suppliers to get rolex replica a person's browsing demands is often not realistic. The majority lately currently have rolex replica daytona watches fast paced plans, but it results in being out of the question to take out distinctive time for them to visit plus conduct quite a few browsing. And while you assume you may save plenty of time to move plus fake chanel have innovative general purses and handbags for your own, its just about moments for any suppliers so that you can nearby all the way down. More intense, you won’t search in the least should the suppliers were pretty not the home. Not less than Chanel at this moment would make everyday living your replica bags minimal a lot easier for yourself, get having it has the full collecting purses and handbags internet on sale.