Thursday, June 23, 2011

Update on JODI

On June 18, the JODI database releasead their new numbers therefore I'm updating some of the charts I've published on TOD. The update is for the month of March which is the last month available from the EIA.

Missing or incomplete countries within JODI are the following:

  • All data missing: (Belgium, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Cyprus, El Salvador, Estonia, Finland, Gabon, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Hong-Kong, Iceland, Ireland, Jamaica, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, Panama, Paraguay, Portugal, Singapore. Slovenia, Suriname, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Uruguay)
  • Incompete time series: Argentina (2 months), Barbados (1 year), Bolivia (3 months), Colombia (3 months), Guatemala (11 months), Kazakhstan (15 months), Burma (15 months), Nicaragua (75 months), Tunisia (3 months), Vietnam (6 months), Yeman (17 months), Iraq (data missing before 2007).
Most of those countries are available in the EIA Energy Database so we are able to complete them. In addition about 124 countires are not listed in JODI mostly small producers and countries part of the Former Soviet Union (see as the red area on Figure 1). The JODI estimate for non-OPEC is pretty much in agreement with the EIA since 2004, the divergence is mainly coming from OPEC countries however the difference with JODI is trending down since mid 2010.

Fig 1. Production data from JODI with missing countries component (in red). The three lines are the corresponding EIA estimates.

Fig 2. Observed differences between time series

Fig 3. Production data from the JODI database (crude oil and condensate). The black dotted line is the EIA estimates. The color is a function of the current production as a % of maximum level observed since 2002.
Seen in the context of peak oil forecasts (Figure 4), this divergence could not come at a more critical time when we need to decide if we are facing a declining supply.

Fig. 4. Average of 13 forecasts for crude oil + NGL, the magenta area represents a population based forecast whereas the yellow area represents the average domain for peak oil forecasts (see this post for details). The green line is the JODI estimate from Figure 3 and the back dotted line is the EIA data. The IEA estimate comes the OMR reports and removing processing gains and biofuel production.