|Figure 1. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Data from the EIA.|
|Figure 2. SPR drawdown and effect on weekly crude oil prices (WTI). The horizontal axis is the number of weeks. The black dotted line represent the planned release. Data from the EIA.|
|Figure 3. Estimated Price variation to a -1 sigma shock to the SPR. The horizontal axis is the number of weeks. The red curves define the 90% confidence interval, the blue curve is the median estimate.|
|Figure 4. Same as Fig. 3 but for Brent.|
Of course, other important factors will influence prices such as gasoline consumption, industrial activity, economic growth and the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. The other unknown is the reaction of OPEC producers in case prices go down too fast.