Tuesday, January 22, 2008

An Update on Mexico Export Land Model

Mexico is a good case study for the Export Land Model (ELM) and it seems that projections made in January 2006 are unfortunately still on track.


Figure 1. mbpd= millions of barrels per day, CO= crude oil + condensate, NGPL= Natural gas liquids. Rig counts from Baker Hughes. Click to Enlarge.

Imports are up by almost 150% since 2004 and it helped meet the domestic demand which is still increasing as predicted despite high gasoline prices:



Figure 2. data from PEMEX. Gasoline prices for PEMEX Premium.

Forecast 2005 2006 2007 2010 2015 Peak Date Peak Value
Crude oil + NGL
Observed (PEMEX) 3.69 3.68 3.52 NA NA 2004-02 3.90
IEA (WEO, 2004) 3.93 4.02 4.09 4.20 4.14 2010 4.20
EIA Low Prices (IEO, 2006) 3.90 3.94 3.98 4.13 4.54 2030-01 5.80
EIA Reference Case (IEO, 2006) 3.88 3.90 3.93 4.02 4.22 2030-01 5.10
EIA High Prices (IEO, 2006) 3.84 3.85 3.86 3.93 4.40 2015-01 4.40
Crude Oil + Lease Condensate
Observed (PEMEX) 3.27 3.25 3.12 NA NA 2004-05 3.45
IEA (WEO, 2006) 3.30 3.28 3.23 3.10 3.10 2005 3.30
Logistic Low 3.36 3.23 3.08 2.61 1.83 1999 3.79
Logistic Medium 3.24 3.24 3.24 3.17 2.91 2006 3.24
Demand
IEA (WEO, 2006) 2.10 2.12 2.14 2.20 2.40 2030 3.10
Cantarell
Observed 1.91 1.63 1.50 NA NA 2004-01 2.14
Logistic Cantarell 2.02 1.78 1.51 0.77 0.19 2003 2.28

11 comments:

  1. Anonymous12:00 PM

    K, a lovely chart to look at, enlarged.

    It's both terrifying and gorgeous.

    An abstract expressionist version Edvard Munch's "Scream."

    I'm doubling my potato crop this spring.

    Signed,

    Mike

    ReplyDelete
  2. JoeFourPack8:23 PM

    Thanks for your hard work! I guess Jello Biafra was right-if the MSM isn't going to do it's job, then it's time to become a reporter and work for yourself and 'the cause.'

    ReplyDelete
  3. Jeff,
    I am just wondering which imports you are talking about. Surely Mexico does not export 1.5 Mbd to the United States and import more than that. I know Mexico is an importer of refined products like gasoline. Can you please show exactly how much oil and finished products Mexico does import every day?
    Thanks,
    Phil

    ReplyDelete
  4. Excellent post. Thanks for sharing.

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  5. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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