An Update on Mexico Export Land Model

Mexico is a good case study for the Export Land Model (ELM) and it seems that projections made in January 2006 are unfortunately still on track.


Figure 1. mbpd= millions of barrels per day, CO= crude oil + condensate, NGPL= Natural gas liquids. Rig counts from Baker Hughes. Click to Enlarge.
Imports are up by almost 150% since 2004 and it helped meet the domestic demand which is still increasing as predicted despite high gasoline prices:



Figure 2. data from PEMEX. Gasoline prices for PEMEX Premium.

Forecast	2005	2006	2007	2010	2015	Peak Date	Peak Value
Crude oil + NGL
Observed (PEMEX)	3.69	3.68	3.52	NA	NA	2004-02	3.90
IEA (WEO, 2004)	3.93	4.02	4.09	4.20	4.14	2010	4.20
EIA Low Prices (IEO, 2006)	3.90	3.94	3.98	4.13	4.54	2030-01	5.80
EIA Reference Case (IEO, 2006)	3.88	3.90	3.93	4.02	4.22	2030-01	5.10
EIA High Prices (IEO, 2006)	3.84	3.85	3.86	3.93	4.40	2015-01	4.40
Crude Oil + Lease Condensate
Observed (PEMEX)	3.27	3.25	3.12	NA	NA	2004-05	3.45
IEA (WEO, 2006)	3.30	3.28	3.23	3.10	3.10	2005	3.30
Logistic Low	3.36	3.23	3.08	2.61	1.83	1999	3.79
Logistic Medium	3.24	3.24	3.24	3.17	2.91	2006	3.24
Demand
IEA (WEO, 2006)	2.10	2.12	2.14	2.20	2.40	2030	3.10
Cantarell
Observed	1.91	1.63	1.50	NA	NA	2004-01	2.14
Logistic Cantarell	2.02	1.78	1.51	0.77	0.19	2003	2.28