Figure 1. mbpd= millions of barrels per day, CO= crude oil + condensate, NGPL= Natural gas liquids. Rig counts from Baker Hughes. Click to Enlarge.
Imports are up by almost 150% since 2004 and it helped meet the domestic demand which is still increasing as predicted despite high gasoline prices:
Figure 2. data from PEMEX. Gasoline prices for PEMEX Premium.
| Forecast | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2010 | 2015 | Peak Date | Peak Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil + NGL | |||||||
| Observed (PEMEX) | 3.69 | 3.68 | 3.52 | NA | NA | 2004-02 | 3.90 |
| IEA (WEO, 2004) | 3.93 | 4.02 | 4.09 | 4.20 | 4.14 | 2010 | 4.20 |
| EIA Low Prices (IEO, 2006) | 3.90 | 3.94 | 3.98 | 4.13 | 4.54 | 2030-01 | 5.80 |
| EIA Reference Case (IEO, 2006) | 3.88 | 3.90 | 3.93 | 4.02 | 4.22 | 2030-01 | 5.10 |
| EIA High Prices (IEO, 2006) | 3.84 | 3.85 | 3.86 | 3.93 | 4.40 | 2015-01 | 4.40 |
| Crude Oil + Lease Condensate | |||||||
| Observed (PEMEX) | 3.27 | 3.25 | 3.12 | NA | NA | 2004-05 | 3.45 |
| IEA (WEO, 2006) | 3.30 | 3.28 | 3.23 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2005 | 3.30 |
| Logistic Low | 3.36 | 3.23 | 3.08 | 2.61 | 1.83 | 1999 | 3.79 |
| Logistic Medium | 3.24 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 3.17 | 2.91 | 2006 | 3.24 |
| Demand | |||||||
| IEA (WEO, 2006) | 2.10 | 2.12 | 2.14 | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2030 | 3.10 |
| Cantarell | |||||||
| Observed | 1.91 | 1.63 | 1.50 | NA | NA | 2004-01 | 2.14 |
| Logistic Cantarell | 2.02 | 1.78 | 1.51 | 0.77 | 0.19 | 2003 | 2.28 |
K, a lovely chart to look at, enlarged.
ReplyDeleteIt's both terrifying and gorgeous.
An abstract expressionist version Edvard Munch's "Scream."
I'm doubling my potato crop this spring.
Signed,
Mike
Thanks for your hard work! I guess Jello Biafra was right-if the MSM isn't going to do it's job, then it's time to become a reporter and work for yourself and 'the cause.'
ReplyDeleteJeff,
ReplyDeleteI am just wondering which imports you are talking about. Surely Mexico does not export 1.5 Mbd to the United States and import more than that. I know Mexico is an importer of refined products like gasoline. Can you please show exactly how much oil and finished products Mexico does import every day?
Thanks,
Phil
Excellent post. Thanks for sharing.
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