Figure 1. mbpd= millions of barrels per day, CO= crude oil + condensate, NGPL= Natural gas liquids. Rig counts from Baker Hughes. Click to Enlarge.
Imports are up by almost 150% since 2004 and it helped meet the domestic demand which is still increasing as predicted despite high gasoline prices:
Figure 2. data from PEMEX. Gasoline prices for PEMEX Premium.
| Forecast | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2010 | 2015 | Peak Date | Peak Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil + NGL | |||||||
| Observed (PEMEX) | 3.69 | 3.68 | 3.52 | NA | NA | 2004-02 | 3.90 |
| IEA (WEO, 2004) | 3.93 | 4.02 | 4.09 | 4.20 | 4.14 | 2010 | 4.20 |
| EIA Low Prices (IEO, 2006) | 3.90 | 3.94 | 3.98 | 4.13 | 4.54 | 2030-01 | 5.80 |
| EIA Reference Case (IEO, 2006) | 3.88 | 3.90 | 3.93 | 4.02 | 4.22 | 2030-01 | 5.10 |
| EIA High Prices (IEO, 2006) | 3.84 | 3.85 | 3.86 | 3.93 | 4.40 | 2015-01 | 4.40 |
| Crude Oil + Lease Condensate | |||||||
| Observed (PEMEX) | 3.27 | 3.25 | 3.12 | NA | NA | 2004-05 | 3.45 |
| IEA (WEO, 2006) | 3.30 | 3.28 | 3.23 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2005 | 3.30 |
| Logistic Low | 3.36 | 3.23 | 3.08 | 2.61 | 1.83 | 1999 | 3.79 |
| Logistic Medium | 3.24 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 3.17 | 2.91 | 2006 | 3.24 |
| Demand | |||||||
| IEA (WEO, 2006) | 2.10 | 2.12 | 2.14 | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2030 | 3.10 |
| Cantarell | |||||||
| Observed | 1.91 | 1.63 | 1.50 | NA | NA | 2004-01 | 2.14 |
| Logistic Cantarell | 2.02 | 1.78 | 1.51 | 0.77 | 0.19 | 2003 | 2.28 |
