Saturday, August 18, 2007

Hurricane Dean Update (2007/08/18 - 120:00 UTC)

An update on Dean, now a strong category 4 hurricane, using the last forecasts available (12:00 UTC). From, Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog:

Texas and Louisiana
Things are looking much brighter for Louisiana, as the GFDL model has come in line with all of the other models in predicting a landfall in Southern Texas or Northern Mexico. It now appears likely that Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula will knock Dean down a category or two before it can approach the Texas coast. The upper level low that was forecast by the GFDL to potentially steer Dean northwards appears to be weakening and moving westwards, out of the way of Dean. You can watch this upper level low on water vapor satellite loops. It is the counter-clockwise spinning region that has moved west off the Florida coast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If this low continues to weaken and move westwards, it will not be able to swing Dean northwestwards towards northeast Texas and Louisiana.





The green bars are representing 2005 oil production (blue bars for gas production, see here for more explanations). The yellow track is the GFDL hurricane model which had the best tracking performance on Rita/Katrina. Click to Enlarge


Same as above but with an overlay of the potential wind impact (analysis performed by Chuck Watson ). Click to Enlarge


Zoom in on the GFDL model and associated wind impacts. Click to Enlarge

These images were obtained using Google Earth using the tools given here.

Update (1007/08/18 - 11:30 UTC):

The new forecast is almost a perfect straight line running through Jamaica and the Yucatan peninsula:



Click to Enlarge



Friday, August 17, 2007

Hurricane Dean Update (2007/08/17)




The green bars are representing 2005 oil production (blue bars for gas production). Click to Enlarge


The blue dots are representing the major oil platforms. Click to Enlarge

This image was obtained using Google Earth using the tools given here.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Tracking Hurricane Dean on Google Earth


Google Earth is a wonderful tool for the integration and visualization of different georeferenced datasets. With Hurricane Dean approaching the Gulf of Mexico, damage to the Gulf of Mexico oil and gas infrastructure is likely. Below, I give some useful Google Earth add-ons that will enable you to visualize the latest storm forecasts/imagery along with data about the Gulf of Mexico Oil&Gas production (click on the various links to install the individual tools or download this kmz file that will install a Hurricane folder in google Earth containing all the tools below):

Forecasts:

Weather data:

Imagery:

Oil and gas data (Gulf of Mexico)

Once all the packages installed, you should get something like this:


Gulf coast oil operation insight, with Ted Falgout, Port Fourchon port director; Daniel Yergin, CNBC global energy analyst (src: CNBC).

"Delays and rising costs are now the name of the game". Daniel Yergin





Hurricane Dean, a repeat of Katrina?

Dean is becoming strong and well organized:



Some models are predicting that Dean will be a repeat of Katrina.


GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) result for August 21 (+126 h).


However, the model average is forecasting a landfall on the Yucatán peninsula:



Five Day Forecast Map (src: Wunderground)

Monday, August 13, 2007

US Temperature Revision

A few charts showing NASA's revision of the average U.S. temperatures since 1882 (see RealClimate for explanations). The revision has a significant impact on the years 2000-2005. Unfortunately, this event has been grossly distorted by some news media.




Click to Enlarge.





The data before correction is coming from the web.archive.org (see data). Click to Enlarge.





Click to Enlarge.





Click to Enlarge.

Update (2007/08/15):




The data before correction is coming from the web.archive.org (see data). Click to Enlarge.





Click to Enlarge.

A Positive Feedback in the Arctic

The Artic sea ice extent is shockingly small this summer and may become ice free sooner than expected (condition not observed for at least a million years):





Sea ice cover (src: NCEP). The image itself displays the ice concentration in intervals. Special colors are pale purple ('weather'), darker purple (no data), gray (too much land near the cell for reliable ice concentrations), and black (land). Red indicates low concentrations (16 to 28 percent), while blues indicate high ice concentrations (over 85%).

It's not surprising knowing that sea surface temperatures in the Artic have been 3 to 5 deg. higher than normal:




Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (src: UNISYS).

The last three points in the chart below seem to indicate a significant departure from the the linear model used until now. This departure may suggest that a non linear model is maybe more appropriate indicating a possible acceleration of the melting sign of a self-enhancing or positive feedback process ( greater loss of sea ice and albedo (the degree of reflecting ability), brings about more warming, leading to greater loss of arctic ice).



Trends in ice extent anomalies show how the expanse covered by ice is changing from year to year for a given month. Anomalies are given in percentage difference from the mean extent for that month. The mean is calculated using the period 1979-2000 (src: NSIDC).


It seems to confirm the most pessimistic forecasts:



(a) Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September from one integration of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) with observations from the satellite era shown in red. The light blue line is a 5-yr running mean. The three lower panels show the September ice concentration (ice floes are separated by open water) in three select decades. (src: RealClimate and "Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice" (Holland et al.)).

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

EIA August Update

The EIA has updated its production numbers yesterday up to May 2007.



CategoryMay 2007May 200612 MA12007 (5 Months)2006 (5 Months)SharePeak DatePeak Value
All Liquids 84.18 84.09 84.49 84.1784.20
100.00%2006-07 85.39
Crude Oil + NGL 81.00 80.82 81.32 81.2181.21 96.23%2005-05 82.04
Other Liquids 3.17 3.26 3.17 2.96 2.99 3.77%2006-08 3.55
NGPL 7.94 7.76 7.85 7.937.75 9.43%2007-02 7.98
Crude Oil + Condensate 73.06 73.06 73.47 73.2973.46 86.80%2005-05 74.27
Canadian Tar Sands1.471.021.271.42 1.061.74%2007-03 1.57

Production figures are in mbpd (million barrels per day)1Moving Average.2the tar sand production numbers are from Statistic Canada.

Below is the Crude oil + NGL production along with the compilation of 13 forecasts (see this post for the details).




Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Another Ethanol Debate

Debating whether ethanol is a good alternative or whether it's just a scam, with Lou Ann Hammond, editor-in-chief of Carlist.com; Jeff Goodell, Rolling Stone writer; and CNBC's Larry Kudlow (source: CNBC). Check also Robert Rapier's blog which has contributed to the Rolling Stonte's article. There is also a story by Robert on TheOilDrum.