Wednesday, July 11, 2007

The New IEA Forecast for Saudi Arabia

The following is derived from a comment posted on The Oil Drum thread about the new Medium Term Oil Market Outlook from the IEA.

Page 26 of the report, Saudi Arabia oil demand will grow almost +4.3% per year reaching 2.8 mbpd in 2012:



At this rate, domestic demand could reach 5 mbpd in 2025! this is far more bullish that my prediction of 4 mbpd in 2050 based on a constant consumption per capita of 24.8 barrels/capita/year. Also, the productive capacity forecast for Saudi Arabia (blue dashed line noted "IEA, 2007") is not very different from the previous forecasts (very close to the 2005 and 2006 forecast) with a productive capacity reaching 12 mbpd around 2012:





Click to Enlarge.

This is a nice case for Jeff Brown export land model.