Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

This post is based on the inventory data reported every week by the EIA here and here. I decided to update a serie of graphs every week based on the current data. The idea is to try to give more context and enhance any eventual outliers or events in the data.

Last Update: April 26, 11:00

List of Figures:
  1. US Gasoline Stocks.
  2. US retial gasoline prices.
  3. Gasoline consumption projections
  4. Gasoline consumption projections (with a 30 day Moving average)
  5. Observed gasoline stock coverage values (NDFC)
  6. Observed U.S. gasoline imports (4-weeks average).
  7. U.S. crude oil stocks
  8. Crude oil spot prices
  9. U.S. Crude oil imports
  10. U.S. Total Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Net Imports
  11. Crude oil input to refineries
  12. Observed crude oil stock coverage values
  13. U.S. Weekly Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (UROC)
Notes:
  1. For some figures (Fig. 3, 4, 9, 10 and 11), the year-to-year increase is adjusted assuming a linear trend (see Are Prices Affecting the Gasoline Consumption in the US? for details).
  2. data points are interpolated for missing days.
Gasoline
Fig 1. US Gasoline Stocks (EIA).


Fig 2. US Retail Gasoline Prices (EIA).


Fig 3. Gasoline consumption projections: The gray level image in the background is the observed seasonal fluctuations (darker areas mean more frequent values). The red curve is the observed data for 2007. The * means that the data for the year 2006 and 2005 have been adjusted to match the yearly consumption for 2007 given by a linear growth model. The dark dotted line is the average fluctuation.


Fig 4. Same as Fig. 3 but after application of a 30 days moving average on the data in order to reduce noise.


Fig 5. Observed stock coverage values (NDFC): the shaded gray values are the observed distribution of NDFC values for each day of the year from all the available years (1991 to 2006) (dark means high probability, white means low probability). The lines are for the last 5 years.


Fig 6. Observed U.S. gasoline imports (4-weeks average).


Crude Oil

Fig 7. US Crude Oil Stocks (EIA).


Fig 8. Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel).


Fig 9. U.S. Crude oil imports (4-weeks average): The gray level image in the background is the observed seasonal fluctuations (darker areas mean more frequent values). The red curve is the observed data for 2007. The * means that the data for the year 2006 and 2005 have been adjusted to match the yearly import level for 2007 given by a linear growth model. The dark dotted line is the average fluctuation.


Fig 10. U.S. Total Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Net Imports (4-weeks average): The gray level image in the background is the observed seasonal fluctuations (darker areas mean more frequent values). The red curve is the observed data for 2007. The * means that the data for the year 2006 and 2005 have been adjusted to match the yearly import level for 2007 given by a linear growth model. The dark dotted line is the average fluctuation.


Fig. 11 Crude oil input to refineries: The gray level image in the background is the observed seasonal fluctuations (darker areas mean more frequent values). The red curve is the observed data for 2007. The * means that the data for the year 2006 and 2005 have been adjusted to match the yearly consumption for 2007 given by a linear growth model. The dark dotted line is the average fluctuation.


Fig. 12 Observed crude oil stock coverage values (NDFC): the shaded gray values are the observed distribution of NDFC values for each day of the year from all the available years (1991 to 2006) (dark means high probability, white means low probability). The lines are for the last 5 years.


Fig. 13 U.S. Weekly Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (UROC): the shaded gray values are the observed distribution of the UROC values for each day of the year from all the available years (1991 to 2006) (dark means high probability, white means low probability). The dark dotted line is the average fluctuation.
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