Friday, February 10, 2006

Russia

Russia is a difficult case because of the recent rebound in production in the late 90s resulting in a bimodal production profile. I applied the Stochastic Bass Model based Particle Filter I proposed yesterday (SBM-PF in short) assuming the following initial parameters:



All the SBM parameters are stochastics and updated at each iteration based on uniform transition probabilities:




For the production data, I used the 2005 BP statistical review for the period 1965-2004 completed with data (1930-1965) taken from a Jean Lahèrrere graph. I also added an unofficial estimate 0f 9.44 mbpd for 2005. The results are shown on the figures below:


Fig. 1. Simulated production profile using the SBM-PF technique


Fig. 2. Observed variations of the beta parameter.




Fig. 3. Resulting URR distribution using the SBM-PF technique. 95% of the values are above 226 Gb.

It's interesting to compare these results in a P/Q vs. Q representation (Hubbert Linearization):


Fig. 4. Result of the SBM-PF approach in the P/Q vs Q representation. The green line is the logistic model resulting from a fit based on the observed data only which gives an URR around 150 Gb. The red line is the fit using the SBM-PF projection.

The Fig. 4 seems to indicate a phenomenon similar to what has been observed with the North Sea production. The green line is mainly influenced by the first production peak whereas the red line fits the second peak better. From my dataset, the observed cumulative production is 142.2 Gb in 2005. Therefore, according to Fig. 3 there is a 95% probability that the Russian reserve is above 83.8 Gb. Published reserve estimates seem to be within the range 60-70 Gb:







SourceReserves (Gb)
BP Statistical Review
End 2004
72.277
Oil & Gas Journal
January 1, 2006
60
World Oil
End 2004
67.138
ASPO
End 2002
63


Below is the production forecast from the ASPO: