Saturday, February 18, 2006

The 4 Biggest Oil Exporters (Revisited)

Last time, we applied the Hubbert linearization technique on the four top oil exporters in order to predict future production. The results were not satisfactory because of the difficulty to fit a logistic curve on the multimodal profiles of Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia. This time, we revisit that exercise by using the SBM-PF method instead. We also model the Ultimate Recoverable Resource (URR) with a prior probability distribution function derived from a range of different estimates. The shape of the prior will be a triangular distribution inspired by the USGS approach. The different reserve and discovery estimates are taken from the following sources:

MEES
EIA
USGS

For the USGS, we added together the mean discovery estimate for oil fields and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL). All the volumes given below are in billions of barrels (Gb). The production profiles are from the 2004 BP statistical review.

Saudi Arabia









SourceReservesYearCumulativeYTFUltimate
BP Statistical Review262.730Year-End 2004
113.8
NA376
Oil & Gas Journal266.810January 1, 2006117NA384
World Oil262.075Year-End 2004
113.8
NA376
IHS 219Year-End 2002
106.2
34332-460
USGS261.4Year-End 199685.8136
483
ASPO194200110314300

The uncertainty about the URR is modeled by a triangular distribution shown on the figure below:



Iran









SourceReservesYearCumulativeYTFUltimate
BP Statistical Review132.460Year-End 200457.2NA190
Oil & Gas Journal132.460January 1, 200659NA192
World Oil130.800Year-End 200457.2NA188
IHS101Year-End 2002
54.3
6161-250
ASPO68Year-End 2002548130
USGS 92.6Year-End 19964667206



Russia









SourceReservesYearCumulativeYTFUltimate
BP Statistical Review72.277Year-End 2004130NA202
Oil & Gas Journal60.000January 1, 2006133NA193
World Oil67.138Year-End 2004130NA197
IHS59Year-End 200212726202-239
USGS 55Year-End 1996
110
115280
ASPO60Year-End 200212723210


Norway









SourceReservesYearCumulativeYTFUltimate
BP Statistical Review9.673Year-End 200419.5NA29
Oil & Gas Journal7.705January 1, 2006
20
NA28
World Oil9.863Year-End 200419.5NA29
IHS15Year-End 2002177
39-43
USGS11.6Year-End 19969.915
37
ASPO14Year-End 200116.31.432



We apply the curve tracking algorithm on each country separately and we sum all the results. The SBM-PF method was applied with 1,500 particles and the predicted curve was based on the propagation of the ten best particles.

Fig. 1. Results of the curve modeling on the 1930-2100 time period.


Fig. 2. Zoom-in on the 1985-2025 time period.










CountryCumulative (2004) Gb
URR (Gb)
qPeak Date
Saudi Arabia114 (29%)381
5.1%
2018-2022
Iran
57 (30%)
1883.7%
2024-2029
Russia
130 (58%)
224
5.8%
2005-2009
Norway
20 (56%)
35
13.8%
2001


The total production seems to reach a plateau between 2006 and 2009 before declining. The Saudi Arabia production is probably optimist reaching 14 mbpd in 2015. Russia is shown to decline in the next few years. Another factor is the growth of the domestic consumption that could further reduce their ability to export oil.

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