Friday, January 27, 2006

The 4 Biggest Oil Exporters

This first blog is a follow up on discussions around the future production of the world four top oil exporters (Iran, Norway, Saudi Arabia and Russia) that have been posted recently on theoildrum.com: Hubbert Linearization Analysis of the Top Three Net Oil Exporters.

The Hubbert linearization technique is applied on Saudi Arabia, Norway, Iran and Russia from which I derive the URR (Qinf) and the growth rate (K). The resulting logistic curve is then shifted in order to match the last production level (2004). I note Qt the cumulative production in 2004. The production data comes mainly from the BP statistical review which gives data from 1965 to 2004. Cumulative production values (Q) are corrected for missing pre-1965 production data.

Saudi Arabia:

Fitting a logistic curve on Saudi Arabia production is quite difficult because production was constrained by quotas and political interventions (embargos). The circled data points are those used for the logistic fit.





The parameters of the logistic fit are the following:

Qt(2004): 110.6 Gb (62.9% of Qinf)
k: 0.0777
Qinf: 175.8 Gb
thalf: 2003.5
Russia:

Russia is also quite a difficult case because of the production collapse in the 80s and the strong rebound in the late 90s.




The parameters of the logistic fit are the following:

Qt(2004): 138.8 Gb (91.6% of Qinf)
k: 0.1083
Qinf: 151.6 Gb
thalf: 1995.5

Norway:

We know that Norway production has peaked and will probably not return near its peak production level. The linear fit in the P/Q vs Q representation is quite clean:




The parameters of the logistic fit are the following:

Qt(2004): 19.5 Gb (63.9% of Qinf)
k: 0.1647
Qinf: 30.5 Gb
thalf: 2000

Iran




The parameters of the logistic fit are the following:

Qt(2004): 19.5 Gb (47.0% of Qinf)
k: 0.0473
Qinf: 121.1 Gb
thalf: 2009

The summation of the 4 production profiles is given below and is obviously pessimistic. The main reason is that Russia is predicted to collapse in 2005 which is obviously not the case. Production forecasts for Norway and Iran seem realistic and their URR are near the ASPO estimates. A more careful modeling of the Russian multi-peak production is necessary... more to come.